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In the bestselling tradition of The World Is Flat and The Next 100 Years, THE ACCIDENTAL SUPERPOWER will be a much discussed, contrarian, and eye-opening assessment of American power.
Near the end of the Second World War, the United States made a bold strategic gambit that rewired the international system. Empires were abolished and replaced by a global arrangement enforced by the U.S. Navy. With all the world's oceans safe for the first time in history, markets and resources were made available for everyone. Enemies became partners.
We think of this system as normal-it is not. We live in an artificial world on borrowed time.
In THE ACCIDENTAL SUPERPOWER, international strategist Peter Zeihan examines how the hard rules of geography are eroding the American commitment to free trade; how much of the planet is aging into a mass retirement that will enervate markets and capital supplies; and how, against all odds, it is the ever-ravenous American economy that-alone among the developed nations-is rapidly approaching energy independence. Combined, these factors are doing nothing less than overturning the global system and ushering in a new (dis)order.
For most, that is a disaster-in-waiting, but not for the Americans. The shale revolution allows Americans to sidestep an increasingly dangerous energy market. Only the United States boasts a youth population large enough to escape the sucking maw of global aging. Most important, geography will matter more than ever in a de-globalizing world, and America's geography is simply sublime.
- Sales Rank: #17727 in Books
- Published on: 2016-02-23
- Released on: 2016-02-23
- Original language: English
- Number of items: 1
- Dimensions: 9.00" h x 1.00" w x 6.00" l, .0 pounds
- Binding: Paperback
- 384 pages
Review
"[A] lively, readable thesis on how the success or failure of nations may rest on the very ground beneath their feet...Anyone seeking a cogent, and provocative, take on where the world is heading should start here. Even if you don't fall in love with maps, you'll never look at them the same way again."― The Wall Street Journal
"In THE ACCIDENTAL SUPERPOWER, Peter Zeihan has explored a contemporary version of Napoleon's dictum that the power of countries derives from their geography. He brings a refreshingly novel and thought-provoking approach to understanding the rise of a U.S.-led global order, current threats, and why the U.S. will probably ride out the future better than others."―George Magnus, former Chief Economist and current Senior Advisor, UBS, and author of The Age of Ageing and Uprising
"An adventurous anatomy of how geography, demographics, and resources will sway the American future."―Laurence C. Smith, Professor and Chair of Geography at UCLA, and author of The World in 2050: Four Forces Shaping Civilization's Northern Future
"In THE ACCIDENTAL SUPERPOWER, Peter Zeihan deftly deploys his knowledge of demography and geography to show why America's growing energy independence will nurture its global dominance for the next quarter century. His contrarian thrust is a smart parry to forecasts of Washington's dwindling relevance in international affairs."―Stephen Glain, author of State vs. Defense
"[An] ingenious, optimistic overview of America's superpower status...readers will find it difficult to put down this fascinating addition to the 'rise and fall of nations' genre."―Kirkus Reviews (Starred Review)
About the Author
Peter Zeihan launched his own firm, Zeihan on Geopolitics, in 2012 after working for twelve years with the geopolitical analysis firm Stratfor, where he was Vice President of Analysis.
Most helpful customer reviews
45 of 49 people found the following review helpful.
Extraordinary mind fodder
By Robert Johnston
The raw, natural, unique geographical potential of the US been, perhaps, hardly noticed and in this early 21st century we can see that is barely realized. The US emerged from WW2 as the only standing power of the age and an accident of circumstance to rebuild the world. Without much notice or aplomb, the accident turned real and changed the world as we know it at 1944 Bretton Woods. Zeihan's premise is that the US has seemed to mature beyond its needy detractors and lukewarm allies and might reconsider the strategic US role in the world away from the position of an active enforcer of global institutions. Zeihan's premise is that we can do better for ourselves without a whole lot of effort. Such an imagining has been inconceivable since the US has been an energy importer. The US must invest insane volumes of national capital to defend the worlds free market resource and energy flows. But that's changed in such fundamental ways that we might reconsider it all and change the century for much better. Zeihan explores discarding WW2's promulgated political maps and considers the world from a space station vantaged eye view.
Zeihan provides a sage, quantifiable grand tour of where that future is peeking through. Everyone can see that there's something different in the air for better or worse. Most recently, we have the huge discount at the gas pump. The global hierarchy is stressed. Strange things are happening in distant places and here in the US. The dynamics of current changes in the geopolitical construct will fill the future history of this century.
Zeihan is an excellent, logical writer. He masterfully knits the pieces of his thesis into an enjoyable coherence. The historical evidence and critical variables are exercised on the grand scale ... geography, politics, human patterns, resources, fundamental `money'/'wealth' and simple luck.
"Accidental Super Power" pulls the reader through the looking glass and out of the comfort zone to consider the way forward ... a better way ... different for sure. For this reader's part, the relevant factors of the past are well framed. The exploration of the future is rooted in the accidental genius of Bretton Woods that would stand for 70 years. Everything geopolitical that living men have experienced is anchored to that 1944 event. The world simply has no experience on a global socio-economic existence without the Bretton Woods rules. So stunning was the outcome, Zeihan posits that Bretton Woods seems to have induced a 70 year coma over heavey weight geopolitics. The world is restless 'confined' by the construct of a world frozen the in place since WW2.
The economic demands of competing big players are stressing Bretton Woods. The US, for its part, is effectually easing out the leadership mantle repelled by its extraordinary costs. Zeihan delves into an America weary of intervening and policing.
The US has been bound in the past 50 years by energy dependence on extorting oil `haves'. American oil and potential independence heralds an American exit opportunity from the troublesome web of pent-up geopolitics and ideologies among rebellious, unlikable oil powers. America's strategic need to spend blood and capital resolving other people's problems to keep shipping lanes and chokepoints free might be over for a very long time with US oil independence
You can read your own political worldview into Zeihan's treatise and decide the credibility for yourself. It's a great work of connecting the dots. The book will challenge every reader's basic premises and constructs.
Anyway, you're lucky as all get-out for being born in America. 5-star ... one of the best I've read in a long. It's an important book.
85 of 99 people found the following review helpful.
The DELIBERATE Superpower
By Frank A. Lewes
I began to suspect from the outset that author Peter Zeihan was not born and educated in the USA. He appears to be only superficially acquainted with U.S. history before World War II.
However, that is NOT a significant weakness of the book because its crux is what has happened, and what Zeihan interpolates WILL happen, between 1945 --- when the USA emerged as a superpower --- and where we are headed into the mid 21st Century. On that period of current history and history extrapolated forward, Zeihan is expert, and that is why this book should be read.
Zeihan's premise that the USA is an "accidental" superpower whose people just happened to stumble upon a continent of astoundingly favorable geography is dubious. Yes, the favorable geography was there, but the creation of the United States as a continent-spanning and then global superpower was no accident.
Zeihan seems to believe that it was a cakewalk for American pioneers to secure possession of our country from coast to coast, and that not much in the way of man-made "artificial infrastructure" (i.e. canals, highways, and railroads) needed to be built:
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One of the things that the Americans have traditionally not needed to spend that money on is artificial infrastructure.
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Mr. Zeihan needs to call up an 1850's canal map, an 1860s through 1940s railroad map, or a modern road atlas with its 40,000 miles of Interstate highways. We've spent the modern-day equivalent of trillions of dollars on transportation infrastructures since our founding, and we're still at it, with the chorus of calls to commit money to high-speed passenger railroads. Transportation infrastructure is the LIFEBLOOD of America. The necessity of unifying the country with man-made transportation has always been an instinct of our national consciousness. Every great man-made transportation corridor we've built --- from the Erie Canal to the Panama Canal to the Transcontinental Railroad, to the Interstates, to the airports has been constructed out of necessity to unity the country economically and politically. Even the "natural" waterways like the Mississippi and Ohio and Potomac were made navigable by man-made operations of dredging and locking.
It took a century of intensive canal, highway, and railroad construction to make it possible for Americans to consolidate sovereignty over the Continental USA. Astounding amounts of capital were poured into canals , railroads, and highways that linked the interior USA , separated by 200 miles of barren Appalachian Mountain "desert," to the East Coast ports.
Indeed, the United States exists in its continental form because George Washington saw the need to link the interior of the continent to the coast before the trans-Appalachian settlers joined up with the British in Canada or the Spanish in Florida. He organized the Potomac Company as a joint venture between Virginia and Maryland to accomplish that. Other states joined the compact, and the final result was the Philadelphia Constitutional Convention. Then came the era of railroads, of highways, and now of air travel. The USA exists as a continent-spanning sovereignty BECAUSE of the enormous expenditure of capital allocated to the DELIBERATE construction of trans-continental infrastructures.
Mr. Zeihan also appears to be only superficially acquainted with Canadian history. His conception of Canada as a fragmented quasi-nation that is probably destined to be absorbed into the USA has a 1960-ish or 1970-ish retro feel to it. These issues of Quebec seceding and Alberta becoming the "51st State" were front-page stories on foreign policy magazines 50 years ago. Those scenarios never panned out because Canada is a deeper-rooted nation than it often appears, even to Canadians. Mr. Zeihan (who Internet research reveals to be Australian-born)would not be expected to understand the history of Canada or the USA the way a person who has lived their entire lives in either country would understand it.
However, the meaningful aspect of the book is how Mr. Zeihan analyzes the world from 1945 going forward and then extrapolates how the mid-21st Century (2030-2080) will look. That last part, which reaches its climax in the Epilogue, is eye-opening.
It is a contrarian-positive view of the USA. Instead of declining into a dystopian post-Superpower anarchy, as many today feel is our destiny, Mr. Zeihan makes the case that the USA's role as the world's ONLY Superpower will be ENHANCED. And, yes, he does explain why our geography is a big part of that. But the character of our people, and especially the vision of our leaders to bridge the gaps in our continental geography in order to make us a unified nation, are the largest part of the equation.
Our geography IS accidental. Our status as the world's only Superpower is DELIBERATE. But that aside, the book has given me a clear vision of what the USA and the rest of the world is probably going to look like in 2030-2080. We make better decisions in the present if we have a good intuition of what the future will bring. I think Mr. Zeihan has foreseen IN SPECIFIC DETAILS, NOT JUST GENERALITIES, the mid-century future of the USA and the world and has described it lucidly in this book.
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btw. this book was released barely more than six WEEKS ago and its main theme of decline of American adversaries in the oil-producing countries of Russia, Venezuela, Iran, etc. is ALREADY happening. Oil prices plunged 50% in the last six weeks and knocked the stuffing out of these American adversaries, just as Peter Zeihan predicted would happen around mid century. This happened because our oil production nearly DOUBLED in the last two years due to fracking. There are also incidental signs that China's economy has reached the limit of its growth curve, as its recent economic growth rate is the slowest since the 1990's. America is once again viewed as the preeminent economic power on the planet. I'd say author Zeihan "hit it out of the park" in predicting this one!
64 of 79 people found the following review helpful.
GRIM FACTS PRESENTED IN THE BEST WAY POSSIBLE
By Mark W. Anderson
I bought this book because Fareed Zakaria recommended it. Then I set out to read it with the expectation that plowing through it would be like cod liver oil, unpleasant but good for me. Instead, I found the author’s writing style to be entertaining and witty, while still conveying the relevant facts of history, geography, and demographics that have shaped humanity’s past and will shape our future. How can you not like a writer who begins his acknowledgements section with the statement, ”It took a village to raise this idiot” ?
Admittedly, I was predisposed to like this book. I have long believed that America is not the “chosen” nation of anyone’s god, and thus not “manifestly destined” to do anything. Instead, I believe that a bunch of Europe’s malcontents fled (or in some cases were shipped) to a new and mysterious continent where 90% of the indigenous people had recently been eliminated by European diseases. There they found a land that is incredibly rich in resources and easy to defend. Then, despite many attempts to avoid it, they were fortunate to receive waves of talented immigrants who contributed greatly to the development of what eventually became the world’s largest economy and most potent military. Thus, I have long seen America as being not “the best” in many categories, but certainly the luckiest country in the solar system.
And, before you ask, I was born here and will always be an American, I love my country, and have served in her military and actually been shot at while doing so.
Peter Zeihan has done an excellent job of presenting the history of the Bretton Woods agreements and their resulting impact - seven decades of relative peace and prosperity for the world, due to the umbrella of naval and military security provided by America and the free access allowed to American markets.
Next he outlines America’s internal demographics that are bringing the Bretton Woods era to an end. He then examines the likely effects of this change on each region of the world, in combination with each region’s own demographics and geopolitical constraints.
The world Mr. Zeihan predicts will be less stable and less equal, both economically and in terms of human rights. Outside of America, life will be harder, local wars will be common, and governments will fail. In parallel, Zeihan predicts that America and her friends will prosper.
This book should be required reading for all Americans, if for no other reason than to discourage the constant yammering about our being “the best” or “the chosen” or anything other than the luckiest.
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